Gov. Martin O'Malley speaks at a press conference. — The Baltimore Sun

In today’s morning roundup, we mentioned a new poll showing Gov. Martin O’Malley’s approval rating at 48 percent. A casual observer might see this and assume O’Malley is vulnerable in 2010 gubernatorial race. But yet, even against two of his strongest potential challengers — former Gov. Robert Ehrlich and former Lt. Gov. (and current Republican National Committee Chairman) Michael Steele — O’Malley leads by more than 10 percentage points.

So what gives? A minority approves of O’Malley’s importance, but a plurality still thinks he should be re-elected. This looks good for O’Malley. There are a few reasons for this:

1. Being a governor in a recession is tough, and 48 percent is a pretty good approval rating. Just ask Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, who only gets a positive job rating from 19 percent of voters. Or the Governator, who only manages to impress 19 percent of California voters. O’Malley is even doing better than Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, who was considered Vice Presidential material.
2. People’s troubles with O’Malley seem to be rooted in the economy, not in him personally. As Aaron C. Davis pointed out on the Washington Post’s politics blog this morning:

A large majority of Maryland voters — 75 percent — say that the state budget is a “very big problem,” according to the poll. But a simple majority can’t agree on a single thing to do about it:
80 percent oppose reducing state aid for public education.
70 percent oppose reducing services for the poor.
67 percent oppose reducing state aid for higher education.
67 percent oppose increasing the state income tax.
64 percent oppose increasing the state sales tax.
56 percent oppose reducing state funding for environmental programs.
51 percent oppose reducing state funding for transportation projects.

Unlike the federal government, states can’t run deficits, so when the economy sours, tax revenues drop and governors and legislatures are left with two choices: raise taxes or cut services. Voters hate both of those things, so O’Malley’s approval rating is going to take a hit.

3. Even if people don’t like O’Malley, they might not like the alternatives any better. Some liberals may be disappointed in the governor’s support for slot machines, for example, but they are highly unlikely to throw their support to conservatives like Ehrlich or Steele. These people could be wooed by someone like former university administrator Doug Duncan running to the left of O’Malley in the Democratic primary or as an independent in the general election.